BTS Pro Series Season 10. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 1:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Lilgunloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Tidehuntersignature
Enryu · 21 game
Lionsignature
NARMAN · 20 games
Marssignature
Enryu · 20 games
Kunkkaoften banned
MamangDaya · 15 games
Queen of Painsignature
Mikoto · 14 games
Gyrocopter
Unknown- · 13 games
Mirana
NARMAN · 12 games
Weaveroften banned
NARMAN · 12 games
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
550 picks · 376 bans
Queen of Pain
476 picks · 569 bans
Mars
451 picks · 619 bans
Weaver
432 picks · 813 bans
Snapfire
365 picks · 170 bans
Kunkka
344 picks · 543 bans
Spirit Breaker
340 picks · 574 bans
Wraith King
281 picks · 342 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% Neon Esports
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total56% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:36
Neon Esports 56%Lilgun 44%
The model gave 56% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Lilgun in 38:20.
Game 2prediction correct38:41
Neon Esports 56%Lilgun 44%
The model gave 56% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 36:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2