BTS Pro Series Season 10. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
Linaoften banned
Bob · 12 games
Ogre Magi
RR · 11 games
Bane
RR · 10 games
Batridersignature
Bob · 10 games
Tiny
Tino- · 9 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Tino- · 8 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Bob · 7 games
Motivate.Trust Gaming
Lion
boombell · 19 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 13 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Q · 10 games
Gyrocoptersignature
JaCkky · 9 games
Medusaoften banned
JaCkky · 9 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
JaCkky · 9 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 8 games
Linaoften banned
Fearless · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
552 picks · 376 bans
Queen of Pain
474 picks · 568 bans
Mars
453 picks · 619 bans
Weaver
435 picks · 810 bans
Snapfire
366 picks · 172 bans
Kunkka
344 picks · 544 bans
Spirit Breaker
340 picks · 571 bans
Wraith King
282 picks · 341 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 24%
Hero pool strength55% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total52% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct51:15
Execration 51%Motivate.Trust Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 32:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinPalos
BatriderFearless
HoodwinkShanks
Lionboombell
Storm SpiritBob
BrewmasterTino-
Treant ProtectorRR
Game 2prediction correct19:37
Execration 50%Motivate.Trust Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 39:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingPalos
Ember SpiritFearless
AxeTino-
Lionboombell
BatriderBob
MiranaShanks
Shadow DemonRR
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 52%
Accuracy by game2 of 2