DreamLeague Season 28 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Hoodwink
Save- · 47 games
Jakirosignature
Kataomi · 27 games
Tusk
Kataomi · 26 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 24 games
Disruptor
Kataomi · 24 games
Muerta
Save- · 22 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Kiritych · 21 game
Puckoften banned
gpK~ · 21 game
OG
Snapfire
Tims · 32 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Tims · 27 games
Jakirooften banned
Skem · 25 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Yopaj · 23 games
Marssignature
Force · 23 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 23 games
Beastmasteroften banned
MikSa` · 21 game
Axeoften banned
Force · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
639 picks · 998 bans
Tusk
534 picks · 447 bans
Centaur Warrunner
466 picks · 639 bans
Shadow Demon
448 picks · 1048 bans
Tiny
448 picks · 487 bans
Warlock
445 picks · 277 bans
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 517 bans
Mars
423 picks · 584 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total50% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:18
BETBOOM TEAM 48%OG 52%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 50:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaKiritych
WindrangerNatsumi
BeastmastergpK~
Ember SpiritYopaj
UnderlordMieRo
LargoForce
TuskKataomi
PhoenixTims
LionSave-
AlchemistSkem
Game 2prediction missed9:32
BETBOOM TEAM 51%OG 49%
The model gave 51% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by OG in 41:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaKiritych
AbaddonNatsumi
PuckgpK~
TinyYopaj
AxeMieRo
UnderlordForce
JakiroKataomi
WindrangerTims
LionSave-
DisruptorSkem
Game 3prediction correct33:19
BETBOOM TEAM 52%OG 48%
The model gave 52% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 1:01:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezKiritych
GyrocopterNatsumi
LargoMieRo
EarthshakerYopaj
Ember SpiritgpK~
Primal BeastForce
WindrangerSave-
LionTims
JakiroKataomi
Ancient ApparitionSkem
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 50%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3