Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 0:2series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NMNo Monkey Businesswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
No Monkey Business
Shadow Demon
illusion · 2 games
Axe
MieRo · 1 game
Bane
antoha · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 1 game
Clockwerk
antoha · 1 game
Disruptor
illusion · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Egor · 1 game
Lunaoften banned
xannii · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
553 picks · 385 bans
Queen of Pain
469 picks · 571 bans
Mars
455 picks · 628 bans
Weaver
438 picks · 820 bans
Snapfire
366 picks · 177 bans
Kunkka
344 picks · 545 bans
Spirit Breaker
344 picks · 576 bans
Wraith King
281 picks · 344 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)23% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:33
Alliance 76%No Monkey Business 24%
The model gave 76% on Alliance — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 32:07.
Game 2prediction missed17:31
Alliance 76%No Monkey Business 24%
The model gave 76% on Alliance — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 34:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 76%
Series resultNo Monkey Business 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2