?
arrow_backBack to match
SAPPHIRE OGA Dota PIT China Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEwin 2:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Bane
Bane
zzq · 12 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 10 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 8 games
38%
Rubick
Rubick
pLAnet · 7 games
43%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
shiro · 5 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
zzq · 5 games
100%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
shiro · 5 games
60%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
zzq · 4 games
75%

Vici Gaming

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ELeVeN · 22 games
45%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Pyw · 18 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Dy · 15 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Victoria · 14 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yds · 14 games
36%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Xm · 13 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Pyw · 12 games
42%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Xm · 12 games
92%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
554 picks · 385 bans
58%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
469 picks · 570 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
456 picks · 630 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
436 picks · 823 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
364 picks · 177 bans
44%
Kunkka
Kunkka
345 picks · 544 bans
54%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
345 picks · 574 bans
52%
Wraith King
Wraith King
282 picks · 340 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% EHOME
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total54% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:23
EHOME 47%Vici Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 40:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeshiro
53% · 209 games56% · 212 games
Templar AssassinXm
Templar Assassin
Razor
Razor7e
42% · 163 games50% · 371 game
Weaverpoyoyo
Weaver
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerzeal
50% · 101 game56% · 91 game
LycanSrf
Lycan
Rubick
RubickpLAnet
48% · 187 games44% · 154 games
HoodwinkYds
Hoodwink
Bane
Banezzq
52% · 368 games49% · 200 games
DisruptorVictoria
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct32:12
EHOME 51%Vici Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 34:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursashiro
46% · 120 games45% · 114 games
Phantom Assassinpoyoyo
Phantom Assassin
Pangolier
Pangolier7e
51% · 222 games53% · 71 game
Dark SeerSrf
Dark Seer
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerzeal
48% · 82 games42% · 175 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Weaver
Weaverzzq
55% · 261 game52% · 206 games
SnapfireVictoria
Snapfire
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanpLAnet
54% · 73 games54% · 192 games
Nyx AssassinYds
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction missed22:16
EHOME 50%Vici Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 38:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursashiro
49% · 113 games52% · 94 games
Lifestealerpoyoyo
Lifestealer
Tidehunter
Tidehunterzeal
51% · 206 games50% · 157 games
LeshracXm
Leshrac
Lina
Lina7e
52% · 216 games49% · 165 games
Spirit BreakerSrf
Spirit Breaker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonpLAnet
47% · 148 games50% · 194 games
RubickYds
Rubick
Dark Willow
Dark Willowzzq
54% · 183 games46% · 256 games
GrimstrokeVictoria
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 54%
Series resultEHOME 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3