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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:1
B8 Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 27 games
44%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 26 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 26 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Heaven · 24 games
54%
Rubick
Rubick
Heaven · 22 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Heaven · 20 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ainkrad · 19 games
47%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
VANSKOR · 19 games
74%

B8 Esports

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 27 games
41%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 25 games
64%
Lina
Linasignature
[T]SA · 23 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Watson · 22 games
59%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Dendi · 20 games
20%
Bane
Bane
Sammyboy · 18 games
50%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Watson · 18 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Alexxo · 17 games
24%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
554 picks · 384 bans
58%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
468 picks · 568 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
455 picks · 629 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
436 picks · 821 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
364 picks · 177 bans
44%
Kunkka
Kunkka
343 picks · 543 bans
54%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
343 picks · 573 bans
52%
Wraith King
Wraith King
282 picks · 339 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 17%
Hero pool strength55% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total85% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:18
Nemiga Gaming 71%B8 Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 48:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingKiritych
55% · 151 game51% · 179 games
Medusav1olent-
Medusa
Razor
RazorAinkrad
45% · 117 games49% · 362 games
PuckDendi
Puck
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerTheChosenOne
45% · 166 games51% · 79 games
LycanpJonn
Lycan
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainHeaven
51% · 201 game53% · 213 games
Dark WillowAugust
Dark Willow
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeVANSKOR
50% · 198 games
Game 2prediction missed12:37
Nemiga Gaming 72%B8 Esports 28%
The model gave 72% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 40:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAinkrad
44% · 167 games54% · 82 games
Nature's ProphetpJonn
Nature's Prophet
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerTheChosenOne
49% · 52 games50% · 161 game
Kunkkav1olent-
Kunkka
Razor
RazorKiritych
50% · 103 games55% · 203 games
Ember SpiritDendi
Ember Spirit
Rubick
RubickHeaven
46% · 74 games54% · 33 games
Skywrath MageAugust
Skywrath Mage
Tusk
TuskVANSKOR
46% · 83 games
Game 3prediction correct48:12
Nemiga Gaming 74%B8 Esports 26%
The model gave 74% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 35:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaKiritych
51% · 222 games40% · 142 games
Morphlingv1olent-
Morphling
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerTheChosenOne
51% · 176 games49% · 186 games
Death ProphetpJonn
Death Prophet
Batrider
BatriderAinkrad
52% · 119 games44% · 352 games
MarsDendi
Mars
Mirana
MiranaHeaven
61% · 195 games50% · 193 games
GrimstrokeAugust
Grimstroke
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonVANSKOR
56% · 161 game
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 85%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3