DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Warlock
Riddys · 33 games
Disruptor
Riddys · 32 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 22 games
Marsoften banned
pma · 22 games
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 21 game
Execration
Snapfire
Shanks · 29 games
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 28 games
Tusk
Shanks · 25 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 23 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 22 games
Axeoften banned
Tino- · 19 games
Jakirooften banned
cml · 19 games
Puckoften banned
Bob · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
637 picks · 997 bans
Tusk
530 picks · 447 bans
Centaur Warrunner
465 picks · 639 bans
Shadow Demon
446 picks · 1046 bans
Tiny
446 picks · 486 bans
Warlock
446 picks · 275 bans
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 515 bans
Mars
423 picks · 582 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 46%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total82% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:16
Natus Vincere 69%Execration 31%
The model gave 69% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 42:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muertagotthejuice
LunaPalos
Queen of PainNiku
RazorTino-
Largopma
KunkkaBob
ClockwerkZayac
TinyShanks
DisruptorRiddys
Witch Doctorcml
Game 2prediction correct28:18
Natus Vincere 69%Execration 31%
The model gave 69% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 36:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassingotthejuice
LunaPalos
Largopma
Void SpiritBob
Queen of PainNiku
Centaur WarrunnerTino-
JakiroRiddys
Phoenixcml
Earth SpiritZayac
Shadow DemonShanks
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 82%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2