SAPPHIRE OGA Dota PIT China Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Uploss 1:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Xtreme Gaming
Queen of Painsignature
Paparazi · 11 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Paparazi · 10 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Pyw · 9 games
Ursaoften banned
Another · 9 games
Marssignature
Srf · 8 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Another · 7 games
Banesignature
Dy · 6 games
Earthshakersignature
Pyw · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
552 picks · 383 bans
Queen of Pain
466 picks · 567 bans
Mars
454 picks · 628 bans
Weaver
434 picks · 820 bans
Snapfire
362 picks · 176 bans
Spirit Breaker
343 picks · 570 bans
Kunkka
342 picks · 541 bans
Wraith King
282 picks · 337 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 62%
Hero pool strength59% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Royal Never Give Up
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:32
Royal Never Give Up 59%Xtreme Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 32:50.
Game 2prediction missed29:46
Royal Never Give Up 59%Xtreme Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 57:42.
Game 3prediction missed46:11
Royal Never Give Up 59%Xtreme Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 37:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteRoyal Never Give Up · 59%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3