Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
X3loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Banesignature
Zayac · 29 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 27 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 24 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 23 games
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 22 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Muka · 18 games
Chensignature
Zayac · 16 games
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 16 games
X3
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 7 games
Bane
Kidaro · 6 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
DarkLord^ · 5 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
DarkLord^ · 4 games
Razoroften banned
Antares · 4 games
Skywrath Mage
Antares · 4 games
Disruptor
Kidaro · 3 games
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
554 picks · 387 bans
Queen of Pain
465 picks · 563 bans
Mars
451 picks · 635 bans
Weaver
431 picks · 825 bans
Snapfire
363 picks · 181 bans
Spirit Breaker
343 picks · 572 bans
Kunkka
342 picks · 538 bans
Wraith King
280 picks · 335 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 31%
Hero pool strength62% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total84% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:22
Hydra 71%X3 29%
The model gave 71% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 30:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaKami
LinaNattyNarwhal
InvokerAskold
Razornesfeer
MarsBlizzy
TimbersawMastery
WeaverMuka
SilencerKidaro
JakiroZayac
Banevelheor
Game 2prediction correct32:13
Hydra 71%X3 29%
The model gave 71% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 32:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingKami
LinaNattyNarwhal
InvokerAskold
Monkey Kingnesfeer
TidehunterBlizzy
Outworld DestroyerMastery
WeaverMuka
Jakirovelheor
DisruptorZayac
BaneKidaro
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 84%
Series resultHydra 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2