SAPPHIRE OGA Dota PIT China Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Invictus Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Banesignature
y` · 22 games
Pangoliersignature
Xiao8 · 18 games
Kunkkasignature
NothingToSay · 17 games
Tidehuntersignature
Faith_bian · 17 games
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 16 games
Elder Titansignature
y` · 15 games
Lycansignature
Faith_bian · 14 games
Leshracsignature
Xiao8 · 12 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
551 picks · 385 bans
Queen of Pain
463 picks · 560 bans
Mars
449 picks · 633 bans
Weaver
430 picks · 822 bans
Snapfire
360 picks · 181 bans
Spirit Breaker
342 picks · 568 bans
Kunkka
341 picks · 537 bans
Wraith King
278 picks · 332 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 41%
Hero pool strength65% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head7 – 2
Model total89% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:9
LGD Gaming 89%Invictus Gaming 11%
The model gave 89% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 19:17.
Game 2prediction missed11:35
LGD Gaming 89%Invictus Gaming 11%
The model gave 89% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 32:58.
Game 3prediction correct34:28
LGD Gaming 89%Invictus Gaming 11%
The model gave 89% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 41:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 89%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3