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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:1
MOUZloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 20 games
65%
Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 20 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 19 games
74%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 17 games
53%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 16 games
88%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
xNova · 14 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NothingToSay · 14 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
fy · 14 games
79%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 72 games
72%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 55 games
55%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 49 games
53%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 46 games
65%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 41 game
61%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 38 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 37 games
68%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 34 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
637 picks · 997 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
530 picks · 447 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
465 picks · 639 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
446 picks · 1046 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
446 picks · 486 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
446 picks · 275 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 515 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
423 picks · 582 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total53% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:8
Xtreme Gaming 48%MOUZ 52%
The model gave 52% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 42:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezAme
45% · 138 games56% · 103 games
InvokerMidOne
Invoker
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
50% · 483 games46% · 340 games
GyrocopterCrystallis
Gyrocopter
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
52% · 469 games42% · 394 games
MarsBOOM
Mars
Phoenix
PhoenixxNova
56% · 205 games49% · 332 games
SnapfireSeleri
Snapfire
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonfy
54% · 421 game51% · 547 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct27:28
Xtreme Gaming 46%MOUZ 54%
The model gave 54% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 38:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNothingToSay
44% · 283 games49% · 633 games
Storm SpiritMidOne
Storm Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerAme
55% · 237 games48% · 622 games
Dragon KnightCrystallis
Dragon Knight
Mars
MarsXxs
45% · 374 games54% · 387 games
BatriderBOOM
Batrider
Jakiro
JakiroxNova
49% · 574 games53% · 270 games
PugnaSeleri
Pugna
Tusk
Tuskfy
46% · 555 games56% · 111 games
Nyx Assassinyamich
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2