DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
paiN Gamingloss 0:2series probability
5%95%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
paiN Gaming
Jakirooften banned
Elmisho · 3 games
Razoroften banned
DarkMago · 3 games
Slardaroften banned
Frank · 3 games
Tusk
Scofield · 3 games
Clockwerk
Scofield · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 2 games
Lifestealer
Smiling Knight · 2 games
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 2 games
Team Liquid
Tusk
Boxi · 41 game
Pucksignature
Nisha · 30 games
Snapfire
Boxi · 28 games
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 24 games
Batrideroften banned
Boxi · 22 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 22 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 21 game
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
636 picks · 990 bans
Tusk
527 picks · 442 bans
Centaur Warrunner
462 picks · 634 bans
Shadow Demon
444 picks · 1037 bans
Warlock
443 picks · 269 bans
Tiny
442 picks · 483 bans
Dragon Knight
422 picks · 515 bans
Mars
420 picks · 575 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 59%
Hero pool strength58% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:45
paiN Gaming 20%Team Liquid 80%
The model gave 80% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverSmiling Knight
UrsamiCKe
Ember SpiritDarkMago
BatriderAce
UnderlordFrank
Storm SpiritNisha
Nyx AssassinScofield
WarlocktOfu
ClockwerkElmisho
TuskBoxi
Game 2prediction correct18:36
paiN Gaming 17%Team Liquid 83%
The model gave 83% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 44:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonSmiling Knight
Shadow FiendNisha
BeastmasterFrank
TinymiCKe
RazorDarkMago
BatriderAce
Shadow ShamanScofield
LargotOfu
JakiroElmisho
HoodwinkBoxi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 95%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2