?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа. Финал · BO5
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:3
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Team Spiritwin 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
gpK~ · 12 games
50%
Bane
Banesignature
Save- · 11 games
73%
Lion
Lionsignature
Save- · 11 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 10 games
90%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
1ls · 10 games
80%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
1ls · 9 games
56%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
DM · 8 games
50%
Io
Iosignature
1ls · 8 games
75%

Team Spirit

Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 27 games
81%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 20 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 16 games
75%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 16 games
63%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 15 games
67%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Mira · 13 games
77%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Collapse · 12 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Miposhka · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
546 picks · 384 bans
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
460 picks · 552 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
448 picks · 634 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
431 picks · 827 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
357 picks · 182 bans
44%
Kunkka
Kunkka
340 picks · 534 bans
54%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
338 picks · 568 bans
52%
Wraith King
Wraith King
278 picks · 321 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 78%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total75% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:48
Virtus.pro 35%Team Spirit 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaPure~
49% · 192 games50% · 62 games
Drow RangerYatoro
Drow Ranger
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerDM
51% · 130 games45% · 185 games
Queen of PainTORONTOTOKYO
Queen of Pain
Invoker
InvokergpK~
47% · 168 games55% · 70 games
Outworld DestroyerCollapse
Outworld Destroyer
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanyamich
48% · 44 games48% · 165 games
Monkey KingMira
Monkey King
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorXakoda
56% · 108 games52% · 160 games
DisruptorMiposhka
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct27:39
Virtus.pro 35%Team Spirit 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaPure~
46% · 263 games53% · 224 games
Monkey KingYatoro
Monkey King
Invoker
InvokergpK~
51% · 238 games47% · 197 games
Ember SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Ember Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterDM
51% · 269 games51% · 184 games
Spirit BreakerCollapse
Spirit Breaker
Weaver
Weaveryamich
52% · 392 games46% · 238 games
GrimstrokeMira
Grimstroke
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanXakoda
49% · 76 games54% · 395 games
BaneMiposhka
Bane
Game 3prediction correct4:19
Virtus.pro 32%Team Spirit 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 17:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingPure~
47% · 214 games56% · 216 games
KunkkaTORONTOTOKYO
Kunkka
Timbersaw
TimbersawDM
40% · 157 games54% · 191 game
Templar AssassinYatoro
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritgpK~
44% · 196 games52% · 129 games
AxeCollapse
Axe
Hoodwink
HoodwinkXakoda
48% · 175 games58% · 178 games
MiranaMira
Mirana
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painyamich
45% · 246 games56% · 274 games
BaneMiposhka
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 75%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3