Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай. Финал · BO3
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Upwin 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Asterloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Team Aster
Snapfire
Fantasy · 22 games
Banesignature
Fantasy · 19 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 19 games
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 19 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Ori · 18 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 17 games
Iosignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
Linasignature
Ori · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
547 picks · 386 bans
Queen of Pain
458 picks · 554 bans
Mars
447 picks · 646 bans
Weaver
432 picks · 844 bans
Snapfire
358 picks · 184 bans
Kunkka
341 picks · 536 bans
Spirit Breaker
339 picks · 570 bans
Wraith King
280 picks · 325 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 59%
Hero pool strength58% Team Aster
Head-to-head3 – 6
Model total58% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:17
Royal Never Give Up 42%Team Aster 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 30:05.
Game 2prediction correct10:35
Royal Never Give Up 42%Team Aster 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 34:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 58%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2