Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка. Финал · BO3
result vs prediction
4 Zoomersloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
Evil Geniuses
Marsoften banned
Tavo · 10 games
Iooften banned
KJ · 9 games
Mirana
Thiolicor · 8 games
Svensignature
Costabile · 8 games
Gyrocopter
Costabile · 7 games
Doomoften banned
Hyko · 6 games
Invokeroften banned
4dr · 6 games
Ogre Magi
KJ · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
548 picks · 386 bans
Queen of Pain
458 picks · 556 bans
Mars
447 picks · 649 bans
Weaver
433 picks · 847 bans
Snapfire
357 picks · 184 bans
Kunkka
341 picks · 539 bans
Spirit Breaker
339 picks · 570 bans
Wraith King
281 picks · 323 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 54%
Hero pool strength61% 4 Zoomers
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total60% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:32
4 Zoomers 40%Evil Geniuses 60%
The model gave 60% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 40:46.
Game 2prediction correct13:39
4 Zoomers 40%Evil Geniuses 60%
The model gave 60% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 32:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 60%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2