Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа. Финал · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PuckChamploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Banesignature
Miposhka · 25 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 18 games
Lionsignature
Mira · 16 games
Ember Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 15 games
Weaversignature
Mira · 13 games
Magnussignature
Collapse · 12 games
Shadow Demon
Miposhka · 12 games
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
543 picks · 389 bans
Queen of Pain
454 picks · 555 bans
Mars
448 picks · 652 bans
Weaver
433 picks · 850 bans
Snapfire
358 picks · 182 bans
Spirit Breaker
343 picks · 567 bans
Kunkka
341 picks · 542 bans
Wraith King
281 picks · 320 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 67%
Hero pool strength61% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total83% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:12
Team Spirit 83%PuckChamp 17%
The model gave 83% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:23.
Game 2prediction correct44:10
Team Spirit 83%PuckChamp 17%
The model gave 83% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 30:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 83%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2