Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай. Финал · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Royal Never Give Uploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Banesignature
y` · 22 games
Pangoliersignature
Xiao8 · 18 games
Kunkkasignature
NothingToSay · 16 games
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 16 games
Elder Titansignature
y` · 15 games
Lycansignature
Faith_bian · 14 games
Tidehuntersignature
y` · 14 games
Leshracsignature
Xiao8 · 12 games
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
543 picks · 391 bans
Queen of Pain
453 picks · 556 bans
Mars
450 picks · 654 bans
Weaver
434 picks · 851 bans
Snapfire
356 picks · 184 bans
Spirit Breaker
344 picks · 565 bans
Kunkka
342 picks · 543 bans
Wraith King
281 picks · 321 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 64%
Hero pool strength65% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total82% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:27
LGD Gaming 82%Royal Never Give Up 18%
The model gave 82% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 47:25.
Game 2prediction correct20:30
LGD Gaming 82%Royal Never Give Up 18%
The model gave 82% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 39:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 82%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2