Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа. Финал · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Virtus.pro
Banesignature
Save- · 11 games
Lionsignature
Save- · 11 games
Queen of Painoften banned
gpK~ · 11 games
Phoenixsignature
1ls · 10 games
Winter Wyvern
1ls · 9 games
Earthshaker
DM · 8 games
Medusasignature
Nightfall · 8 games
Void Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
540 picks · 389 bans
Mars
453 picks · 651 bans
Queen of Pain
452 picks · 549 bans
Weaver
434 picks · 849 bans
Snapfire
352 picks · 184 bans
Spirit Breaker
345 picks · 557 bans
Kunkka
338 picks · 540 bans
Wraith King
279 picks · 318 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 58%
Hero pool strength58% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:24
PuckChamp 43%Virtus.pro 57%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 25:19.
Game 2prediction correct26:20
PuckChamp 43%Virtus.pro 57%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 41:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 57%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2