Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа. Финал · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:2series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HellRaiserswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Banesignature
Miposhka · 24 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 17 games
Ember Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
Lionsignature
Mira · 15 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 15 games
Magnussignature
Collapse · 12 games
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 12 games
Tiny
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
538 picks · 389 bans
Mars
451 picks · 650 bans
Queen of Pain
451 picks · 547 bans
Weaver
432 picks · 850 bans
Snapfire
353 picks · 182 bans
Spirit Breaker
346 picks · 556 bans
Kunkka
339 picks · 539 bans
Wraith King
279 picks · 319 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 70%
Hero pool strength61% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total75% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:27
Team Spirit 75%HellRaisers 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 33:57.
Game 2prediction correct25:15
Team Spirit 75%HellRaisers 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 31:35.
Game 3prediction missed7:33
Team Spirit 75%HellRaisers 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 37:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 75%
Series resultHellRaisers 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3