Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай. Финал · BO3
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Upwin 2:1series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Asterloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Team Aster
Snapfire
Fantasy · 18 games
Banesignature
Fantasy · 17 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 17 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Ori · 17 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 16 games
Iosignature
BoBoKa · 14 games
Linasignature
Ori · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
539 picks · 388 bans
Mars
452 picks · 649 bans
Queen of Pain
449 picks · 546 bans
Weaver
432 picks · 850 bans
Snapfire
351 picks · 182 bans
Spirit Breaker
346 picks · 553 bans
Kunkka
339 picks · 541 bans
Wraith King
278 picks · 317 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% Team Aster
Head-to-head2 – 6
Model total62% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:25
Royal Never Give Up 38%Team Aster 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 31:57.
Game 2prediction correct43:10
Royal Never Give Up 38%Team Aster 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 33:21.
Game 3prediction correct10:33
Royal Never Give Up 38%Team Aster 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 28:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 62%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3