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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай. Финал · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:1
EHOMEloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Bane
Banesignature
y` · 22 games
86%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xiao8 · 18 games
61%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
NothingToSay · 16 games
75%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 15 games
80%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 15 games
80%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Faith_bian · 14 games
64%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
y` · 14 games
79%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Xiao8 · 12 games
83%

EHOME

Bane
Bane
zzq · 9 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 8 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
shiro · 5 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
pLAnet · 5 games
60%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
7e · 5 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
zzq · 5 games
100%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
zeal · 3 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
pLAnet · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
538 picks · 388 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
451 picks · 649 bans
52%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
448 picks · 544 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
430 picks · 849 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
350 picks · 181 bans
45%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
346 picks · 550 bans
53%
Kunkka
Kunkka
339 picks · 541 bans
53%
Wraith King
Wraith King
277 picks · 315 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 55%
Hero pool strength59% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head6 – 3
Model total91% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:9
LGD Gaming 77%EHOME 23%
The model gave 77% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 24:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordAme
45% · 90 games51% · 169 games
Templar Assassinshiro
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
49% · 216 games52% · 233 games
Ember Spirit7e
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFaith_bian
61% · 165 games46% · 107 games
Legion Commanderzeal
Legion Commander
Weaver
WeaverXinQ
53% · 283 games47% · 134 games
Earth SpiritpLAnet
Earth Spirit
Grimstroke
Grimstrokey`
47% · 246 games49% · 357 games
Banezzq
Bane
Game 2prediction missed28:56
LGD Gaming 76%EHOME 24%
The model gave 76% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 1:01:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenAme
52% · 27 games46% · 128 games
Ursashiro
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
41% · 177 games44% · 110 games
Night Stalkerzeal
Night Stalker
Mars
MarsFaith_bian
50% · 406 games50% · 302 games
GrimstrokepLAnet
Grimstroke
Snapfire
SnapfireXinQ
50% · 308 games58% · 302 games
Ember Spirit7e
Ember Spirit
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitiony`
56% · 148 games55% · 224 games
Iozzq
Io
Game 3prediction correct36:16
LGD Gaming 76%EHOME 24%
The model gave 76% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 30:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingAme
53% · 204 games57% · 127 games
Templar Assassinshiro
Templar Assassin
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNothingToSay
49% · 211 games50% · 197 games
Void Spirit7e
Void Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightFaith_bian
51% · 115 games48% · 81 game
Legion Commanderzeal
Legion Commander
Jakiro
Jakiroy`
39% · 58 games53% · 113 games
RubickpLAnet
Rubick
Tusk
TuskXinQ
45% · 126 games53% · 196 games
Weaverzzq
Weaver
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 91%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3