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BTS Pro Series Season 10. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Lina
Linaoften banned
Bob · 12 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 12 games
33%
Bane
Bane
RR · 10 games
40%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
RR · 10 games
10%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Bob · 9 games
78%
Tiny
Tiny
Tino- · 9 games
56%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Tino- · 8 games
63%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Bob · 7 games
0%

Polaris Esports

Lion
Lionsignature
cml · 17 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Force · 13 games
77%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Force · 13 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 10 games
70%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Mac · 10 games
70%
Bane
Banesignature
cml · 9 games
78%
Mirana
Mirana
Boomy · 9 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Boomy · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
539 picks · 388 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
450 picks · 651 bans
52%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
449 picks · 542 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
433 picks · 847 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
349 picks · 181 bans
44%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
348 picks · 550 bans
53%
Kunkka
Kunkka
339 picks · 541 bans
53%
Wraith King
Wraith King
276 picks · 315 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 85%
Hero pool strength62% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:37
Execration 30%Polaris Esports 70%
The model gave 70% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 36:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaMarb
53% · 246 games51% · 114 games
Templar AssassinNatsumi
Templar Assassin
Batrider
BatriderBob
54% · 152 games46% · 137 games
Storm SpiritMac
Storm Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerLuciano
53% · 132 games44% · 241 game
MarsForce
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonRR
58% · 172 games44% · 144 games
GrimstrokeBoomy
Grimstroke
42% · 66 games
Ogre Magicml
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct19:37
Execration 27%Polaris Esports 73%
The model gave 73% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 34:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingMarb
40% · 177 games54% · 116 games
UrsaNatsumi
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritBob
45% · 180 games51% · 161 game
LeshracMac
Leshrac
Mars
MarsLuciano
46% · 362 games53% · 207 games
Death ProphetForce
Death Prophet
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiRR
44% · 90 games59% · 187 games
Nyx AssassinBoomy
Nyx Assassin
63% · 138 games
Shadow Demoncml
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 84%
Series resultPolaris Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2