BTS Pro Series Season 10. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Lilgunwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Motivate.Trust Gaming
Lion
boombell · 18 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 12 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Q · 10 games
Gyrocoptersignature
JaCkky · 9 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
JaCkky · 9 games
Medusasignature
JaCkky · 8 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 8 games
Snapfire
Q · 7 games
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
539 picks · 379 bans
Mars
450 picks · 655 bans
Queen of Pain
442 picks · 531 bans
Weaver
427 picks · 844 bans
Snapfire
345 picks · 178 bans
Spirit Breaker
339 picks · 537 bans
Kunkka
334 picks · 538 bans
Wraith King
275 picks · 310 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total58% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:31
Motivate.Trust Gaming 58%Lilgun 42%
The model gave 58% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Lilgun in 23:08.
Game 2prediction missed19:44
Motivate.Trust Gaming 58%Lilgun 42%
The model gave 58% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Lilgun in 35:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 58%
Series resultLilgun 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2