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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка. Финал · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Infamouswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Mars
Marsoften banned
Frank · 17 games
35%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Oscar · 14 games
64%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
DarkMago · 11 games
45%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 9 games
89%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 8 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 8 games
63%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Pakazs · 8 games
25%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
DarkMago · 7 games
43%

Infamous

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Lumière · 10 games
60%
Mars
Marssignature
Sacred · 9 games
89%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Sacred · 7 games
71%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Michael · 7 games
57%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Michael · 6 games
83%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Michael · 5 games
80%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Parker · 5 games
60%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Prada · 5 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
540 picks · 379 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
453 picks · 651 bans
51%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
436 picks · 527 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
426 picks · 843 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
348 picks · 177 bans
44%
Kunkka
Kunkka
334 picks · 533 bans
53%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
334 picks · 530 bans
53%
Wraith King
Wraith King
274 picks · 308 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 57%
Hero pool strength60% Infamous
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total71% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:38
Thunder Awaken 71%Infamous 29%
The model gave 71% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Infamous in 45:06.
Game 2prediction missed16:27
Thunder Awaken 71%Infamous 29%
The model gave 71% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Infamous in 35:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 71%
Series resultInfamous 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2