Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа. Финал · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 15 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 13 games
Banesignature
tOfu · 12 games
Tidehuntersignature
Ace · 10 games
Weaversignature
tOfu · 10 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
dyrachyo · 9 games
Queen of Painsignature
BOOM · 8 games
Invokeroften banned
BOOM · 7 games
OG
Snapfire
Taiga · 14 games
Marsoften banned
ATF · 12 games
Bane
Misha · 11 games
Razorsignature
Yuragi · 9 games
Clinkzsignature
SumaiL · 8 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 8 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Taiga · 8 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yuragi · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
539 picks · 381 bans
Mars
454 picks · 650 bans
Queen of Pain
434 picks · 527 bans
Weaver
424 picks · 845 bans
Snapfire
350 picks · 177 bans
Kunkka
335 picks · 535 bans
Spirit Breaker
332 picks · 527 bans
Wraith King
271 picks · 306 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 55%
Hero pool strength56% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:7
Gaimin Gladiators 55%OG 45%
The model gave 55% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 25:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith Kingdyrachyo
KunkkaYuragi
Storm SpiritBOOM
Queen of Painbzm
Spirit BreakerAce
SlardarATF
IoSeleri
ChenMisha
GrimstroketOfu
Shadow ShamanTaiga
Game 2prediction correct22:6
Gaimin Gladiators 56%OG 44%
The model gave 56% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 26:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainBOOM
ClinkzYuragi
Wraith Kingdyrachyo
Puckbzm
TidehunterAce
HuskarATF
RubicktOfu
WeaverTaiga
Treant ProtectorSeleri
AbaddonMisha
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 59%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2