Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка. Финал · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 1:2series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 1:2
beastcoastwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Marsoften banned
Frank · 16 games
Tidehuntersignature
Oscar · 14 games
Batrideroften banned
DarkMago · 10 games
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 9 games
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 7 games
Phoenix
Mjz · 7 games
Snapfire
Matthew · 7 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Mnz · 7 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
537 picks · 381 bans
Mars
454 picks · 647 bans
Queen of Pain
431 picks · 523 bans
Weaver
420 picks · 850 bans
Snapfire
350 picks · 179 bans
Kunkka
332 picks · 533 bans
Spirit Breaker
332 picks · 527 bans
Wraith King
272 picks · 305 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)86% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total81% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:32
Thunder Awaken 81%beastcoast 19%
The model gave 81% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by beastcoast in 39:42.
Game 2prediction correct45:13
Thunder Awaken 81%beastcoast 19%
The model gave 81% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 33:46.
Game 3prediction missed16:25
Thunder Awaken 81%beastcoast 19%
The model gave 81% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by beastcoast in 37:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 81%
Series resultbeastcoast 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3