Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА. Финал · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
T1win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Pangoliersignature
Fbz · 21 game
Monkey Kingsignature
Tims · 14 games
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 14 games
Enchantresssignature
Skem · 13 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 13 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
Fbz · 11 games
Bloodseekersignature
Palos · 11 games
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
533 picks · 379 bans
Mars
456 picks · 645 bans
Queen of Pain
431 picks · 521 bans
Weaver
416 picks · 856 bans
Snapfire
352 picks · 180 bans
Kunkka
333 picks · 532 bans
Spirit Breaker
332 picks · 524 bans
Wraith King
270 picks · 304 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 64%
Hero pool strength63% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total62% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:32
BOOM Esports 62%T1 38%
The model gave 62% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by T1 in 39:25.
Game 2prediction correct29:14
BOOM Esports 62%T1 38%
The model gave 62% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 35:29.
Game 3prediction missed9:44
BOOM Esports 62%T1 38%
The model gave 62% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by T1 in 54:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 62%
Series resultT1 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3