Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка. Финал · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamousloss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
beastcoastwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infamous
Gyrocoptersignature
Lumière · 10 games
Marssignature
Sacred · 9 games
Bloodseekersignature
Sacred · 7 games
Earth Spirit
Michael · 7 games
Miranasignature
Michael · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Michael · 5 games
Lunaoften banned
Parker · 5 games
Ogre Magi
Prada · 5 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
531 picks · 380 bans
Mars
456 picks · 645 bans
Queen of Pain
430 picks · 520 bans
Weaver
415 picks · 853 bans
Snapfire
353 picks · 180 bans
Kunkka
332 picks · 532 bans
Spirit Breaker
332 picks · 521 bans
Wraith King
270 picks · 303 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 58%
Hero pool strength60% Infamous
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total62% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:32
Infamous 62%beastcoast 38%
The model gave 62% on Infamous — the game was taken by beastcoast in 42:24.
Game 2prediction missed35:37
Infamous 62%beastcoast 38%
The model gave 62% on Infamous — the game was taken by beastcoast in 49:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 62%
Series resultbeastcoast 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2