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BLAST Slam VIII · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
GamerLegionloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 34 games
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
KJ · 22 games
55%
Bane
Baneoften banned
KJ · 21 game
57%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
Yuma · 21 game
52%
Windranger
Windranger
Thiolicor · 18 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Thiolicor · 17 games
47%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
KJ · 16 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Wisper · 15 games
53%

GamerLegion

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Bignum · 30 games
47%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Speeed · 27 games
70%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Speeed · 22 games
41%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Bignum · 19 games
37%
Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 17 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
RCY · 16 games
44%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Fayde · 15 games
40%
Kez
Kezsignature
RCY · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
525 picks · 308 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
428 picks · 185 bans
52%
Mirana
Mirana
387 picks · 172 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
340 picks · 504 bans
58%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
327 picks · 296 bans
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
314 picks · 311 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
302 picks · 507 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
280 picks · 150 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total58% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:40
LGD Gaming 53%GamerLegion 47%
The model gave 53% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 59:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWits
48% · 97 games50% · 75 games
SvenYuma
Sven
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSumaiL
52% · 223 games45% · 170 games
Earth SpiritRCY
Earth Spirit
Necrophos
NecrophosDavai
50% · 82 games56% · 195 games
LargoFayde
Largo
Windranger
WindrangerThiolicor
49% · 246 games50% · 159 games
TechiesBignum
Techies
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorSneyking
47% · 107 games53% · 156 games
MiranaSpeeed
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct28:1
LGD Gaming 53%GamerLegion 47%
The model gave 53% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 35:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetWits
39% · 217 games49% · 82 games
UrsaYuma
Ursa
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDavai
43% · 200 games56% · 84 games
LargoFayde
Largo
Slark
SlarkSumaiL
58% · 131 game54% · 232 games
Ember SpiritRCY
Ember Spirit
Dazzle
DazzleSneyking
47% · 142 games54% · 110 games
MiranaSpeeed
Mirana
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterThiolicor
50% · 93 games51% · 275 games
HoodwinkBignum
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct24:20
LGD Gaming 54%GamerLegion 46%
The model gave 54% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 45:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetWits
57% · 97 games58% · 128 games
NecrophosYuma
Necrophos
Pangolier
PangolierSumaiL
47% · 180 games52% · 138 games
LycanFayde
Lycan
Underlord
UnderlordDavai
32% · 139 games50% · 18 games
Outworld DestroyerRCY
Outworld Destroyer
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightThiolicor
53% · 139 games50% · 293 games
WindrangerBignum
Windranger
Bane
BaneSneyking
48% · 194 games53% · 172 games
Winter WyvernSpeeed
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 58%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3