Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА. Финал · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticloss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
T1win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
534 picks · 377 bans
Mars
456 picks · 652 bans
Queen of Pain
428 picks · 520 bans
Weaver
412 picks · 858 bans
Snapfire
355 picks · 181 bans
Kunkka
330 picks · 536 bans
Spirit Breaker
330 picks · 519 bans
Disruptor
264 picks · 183 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 62%
Hero pool strength50% Fnatic
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total54% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:19
Fnatic 54%T1 46%
The model gave 54% on Fnatic — the game was taken by T1 in 40:33.
Game 2prediction missed25:25
Fnatic 54%T1 46%
The model gave 54% on Fnatic — the game was taken by T1 in 1:05:41.
Game 3prediction missed28:21
Fnatic 54%T1 46%
The model gave 54% on Fnatic — the game was taken by T1 in 53:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 54%
Series resultT1 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3