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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА. Финал · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team SMGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Tims · 20 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Tims · 14 games
79%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 14 games
79%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Skem · 13 games
85%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 13 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 12 games
83%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Palos · 11 games
73%
Io
Iosignature
Skem · 11 games
73%

Team SMG

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
AhFu · 28 games
68%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Roddgeee · 19 games
74%
Lina
Linasignature
Moon · 14 games
79%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
MidOne · 14 games
93%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
AhFu · 13 games
62%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 13 games
54%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Roddgeee · 12 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Roddgeee · 12 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
534 picks · 375 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
456 picks · 650 bans
51%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
428 picks · 519 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
412 picks · 856 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
354 picks · 181 bans
44%
Kunkka
Kunkka
329 picks · 535 bans
54%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
329 picks · 519 bans
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
264 picks · 183 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total72% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:24
BOOM Esports 65%Team SMG 35%
The model gave 65% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 35:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaJaCkky
52% · 110 games41% · 168 games
MorphlingMidOne
Morphling
Kunkka
KunkkaYopaj
50% · 88 games50% · 178 games
LeshracMoon
Leshrac
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFbz
53% · 83 games46% · 144 games
Shadow DemonAhFu
Shadow Demon
Mirana
MiranaTims
55% · 141 game49% · 181 game
TuskRoddgeee
Tusk
Lion
LionSkem
57% · 249 games
Game 2prediction correct54:23
BOOM Esports 66%Team SMG 34%
The model gave 66% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 39:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaJaCkky
54% · 111 games42% · 217 games
MorphlingMidOne
Morphling
Snapfire
SnapfireYopaj
47% · 201 game52% · 299 games
Ember SpiritMoon
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierFbz
49% · 178 games49% · 137 games
Spirit BreakerAhFu
Spirit Breaker
Mirana
MiranaTims
54% · 151 game46% · 218 games
TuskRoddgeee
Tusk
Lion
LionSkem
59% · 230 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 72%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2