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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 33 games
58%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 27 games
78%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 25 games
76%
Pugna
Pugna
Whitemon · 21 game
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 20 games
65%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
33 · 19 games
68%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Pure~ · 19 games
63%

Natus Vincere

Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 32 games
53%
Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 32 games
59%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
77%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 22 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 22 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 21 game
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
637 picks · 991 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
527 picks · 442 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
462 picks · 637 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
441 picks · 1033 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
440 picks · 481 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
438 picks · 268 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 515 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
418 picks · 574 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total64% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:17
Tundra Esports 58%Natus Vincere 42%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 34:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezPure~
49% · 71 game49% · 226 games
Ursagotthejuice
Ursa
Tiny
Tinybzm
46% · 353 games48% · 188 games
Void SpiritNiku
Void Spirit
Doom
Doom33
49% · 112 games56% · 67 games
Largopma
Largo
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
46% · 146 games49% · 370 games
WarlockRiddys
Warlock
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAri
51% · 233 games60% · 64 games
Nyx AssassinZayac
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct30:9
Tundra Esports 56%Natus Vincere 44%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 31:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezPure~
43% · 79 games50% · 200 games
Ursagotthejuice
Ursa
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
48% · 222 games55% · 197 games
Bristlebackpma
Bristleback
Largo
Largo33
46% · 60 games55% · 124 games
InvokerNiku
Invoker
Warlock
WarlockWhitemon
49% · 366 games54% · 283 games
Shadow DemonZayac
Shadow Demon
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
49% · 274 games51% · 197 games
Shadow ShamanRiddys
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 64%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2