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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 32 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Tims · 27 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Skem · 26 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Yopaj · 23 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
Force · 23 games
65%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 23 games
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MikSa` · 21 game
43%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Force · 20 games
45%

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 40 games
57%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 30 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 28 games
46%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 24 games
54%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Boxi · 22 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 22 games
41%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 21 game
76%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 21 game
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
635 picks · 985 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
524 picks · 441 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
461 picks · 633 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
439 picks · 1027 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
437 picks · 478 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
436 picks · 268 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
422 picks · 513 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
418 picks · 567 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total66% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:34
OG 38%Team Liquid 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNatsumi
52% · 185 games54% · 124 games
RazorNisha
Razor
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritYopaj
46% · 357 games58% · 227 games
Monkey KingmiCKe
Monkey King
Underlord
UnderlordForce
49% · 145 games50% · 310 games
BatriderAce
Batrider
Warlock
WarlockSkem
48% · 343 games51% · 43 games
OracletOfu
Oracle
Clockwerk
ClockwerkTims
46% · 139 games46% · 465 games
TinyBoxi
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct19:32
OG 42%Team Liquid 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzNatsumi
60% · 85 games50% · 242 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Tiny
TinyYopaj
46% · 521 game52% · 127 games
SvenmiCKe
Sven
Underlord
UnderlordForce
50% · 235 games50% · 78 games
LargoAce
Largo
Mirana
MiranaSkem
55% · 94 games45% · 337 games
WarlocktOfu
Warlock
Marci
MarciTims
51% · 270 games44% · 421 game
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 66%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2