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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYloss 0:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Winstrike Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 10 games
30%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
TheBloodySky · 9 games
33%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Lowskill · 5 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 5 games
60%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Copy · 4 games
25%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
25%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Copy · 4 games
50%

Winstrike Team

Weaver
Weaversignature
yamich · 19 games
74%
Mars
Marssignature
chshrct · 17 games
65%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
mellojul · 17 games
53%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 13 games
77%
Bane
Bane
Panto · 12 games
58%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Panto · 12 games
58%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
yamich · 11 games
64%
Puck
Pucksignature
mellojul · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
520 picks · 370 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
463 picks · 665 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
410 picks · 508 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
407 picks · 864 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
376 picks · 194 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
317 picks · 531 bans
55%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
311 picks · 486 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
266 picks · 182 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 53%
Hero pool strength63% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total79% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:45
IVY 34%Winstrike Team 66%
The model gave 66% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 35:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaLowskill
53% · 169 games52% · 121 game
Faceless VoidDaxak
Faceless Void
Batrider
BatriderMo13ei
55% · 114 games52% · 260 games
PuckLarl
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierTheBloodySky
51% · 251 game52% · 171 game
Spirit BreakerNoticed
Spirit Breaker
Weaver
WeaverQupe
49% · 208 games40% · 232 games
Grimstrokeforcemajor
Grimstroke
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonjmn-
51% · 169 games45% · 127 games
GyrocopterSoNNeikO
Gyrocopter
Game 2prediction correct12:39
IVY 34%Winstrike Team 66%
The model gave 66% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 39:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMo13ei
55% · 97 games46% · 108 games
UrsaDaxak
Ursa
Kunkka
KunkkaLowskill
61% · 206 games43% · 167 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderTheBloodySky
47% · 125 games45% · 336 games
MarsNoticed
Mars
Mirana
MiranaQupe
58% · 192 games46% · 96 games
GyrocopterSoNNeikO
Gyrocopter
Weaver
Weaverjmn-
56% · 265 games44% · 178 games
Rubickforcemajor
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 79%
Series resultWinstrike Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2