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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 32 games
53%
Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 32 games
59%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
77%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 22 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 21 game
52%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 21 game
57%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 70 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 55 games
55%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 49 games
53%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 46 games
65%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 41 game
61%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 37 games
68%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 37 games
73%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 34 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
632 picks · 979 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
522 picks · 438 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
461 picks · 632 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
439 picks · 1021 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
437 picks · 478 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
435 picks · 263 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 513 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
414 picks · 566 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% MOUZ
Head-to-head5 – 5
Model total55% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:35
Natus Vincere 54%MOUZ 46%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by MOUZ in 27:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
50% · 351 game49% · 106 games
RazorCrystallis
Razor
Puck
PuckNiku
51% · 545 games51% · 291 game
BristlebackBOOM
Bristleback
Viper
Viperpma
58% · 94 games49% · 338 games
Void SpiritMidOne
Void Spirit
Jakiro
JakiroRiddys
47% · 666 games47% · 463 games
WarlockSeleri
Warlock
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritZayac
57% · 27 games47% · 485 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed30:34
Natus Vincere 54%MOUZ 46%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by MOUZ in 49:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorgotthejuice
47% · 91 game52% · 357 games
PuckMidOne
Puck
Underlord
Underlordpma
44% · 218 games52% · 254 games
BristlebackBOOM
Bristleback
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNiku
54% · 410 games49% · 91 game
ViperCrystallis
Viper
Hoodwink
HoodwinkZayac
53% · 307 games55% · 190 games
ChenSeleri
Chen
Ringmaster
RingmasterRiddys
47% · 384 games46% · 518 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 55%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2