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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 31 game
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Tims · 27 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Skem · 26 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Yopaj · 23 games
65%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 22 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MikSa` · 21 game
43%
Mars
Marssignature
Force · 21 game
71%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Force · 20 games
45%

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 37 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 36 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 34 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 29 games
72%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 28 games
57%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 27 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 26 games
73%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 26 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
628 picks · 973 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
518 picks · 435 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
460 picks · 626 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
439 picks · 1011 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
434 picks · 477 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
432 picks · 263 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
422 picks · 512 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
406 picks · 564 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 79%
Hero pool strength59% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total66% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:23
OG 38%Aurora Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 39:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinNatsumi
54% · 250 games48% · 207 games
WindrangerNightfall
Windranger
Mars
MarsForce
42% · 330 games56% · 325 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Slardar
SlardarYopaj
52% · 251 game52% · 153 games
PhoenixWs
Phoenix
Chen
ChenSkem
48% · 191 game55% · 80 games
Nyx AssassinMira
Nyx Assassin
Clockwerk
ClockwerkTims
48% · 138 games45% · 395 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct6:32
OG 37%Aurora Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 33:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezNatsumi
55% · 76 games56% · 203 games
TimbersawWs
Timbersaw
Void Spirit
Void SpiritYopaj
46% · 218 games50% · 374 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Mars
MarsForce
46% · 366 games52% · 218 games
WindrangerNightfall
Windranger
Snapfire
SnapfireTims
43% · 270 games48% · 392 games
TinyMira
Tiny
Warlock
WarlockSkem
51% · 433 games54% · 176 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 66%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2