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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
paiN Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yakult Brotherswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

paiN Gaming

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 2 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Elmisho · 2 games
0%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
DarkMago · 2 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 2 games
0%
Viper
Viperoften banned
DarkMago · 2 games
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 1 game
100%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Frank · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Frank · 1 game
0%

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 31 game
52%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 28 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 26 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
天命 · 24 games
29%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 22 games
36%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 21 game
33%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moon · 21 game
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zeal · 19 games
37%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
628 picks · 973 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
518 picks · 435 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
460 picks · 626 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
439 picks · 1011 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
434 picks · 477 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
432 picks · 263 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
422 picks · 512 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
406 picks · 564 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 32%
Hero pool strength53% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:30
paiN Gaming 47%Yakult Brothers 53%
The model gave 53% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 31:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mars
MarsDarkMago
49% · 262 games53% · 134 games
Phantom Assassinflyfly
Phantom Assassin
Clinkz
ClinkzSmiling Knight
55% · 93 games54% · 113 games
RazorMoon
Razor
Slardar
SlardarFrank
48% · 204 games47% · 98 games
LargoYang
Largo
Windranger
WindrangerElmisho
48% · 283 games51% · 261 game
MuertaBoBoKa
Muerta
Tusk
TuskScofield
47% · 387 games49% · 623 games
Jakiro天命
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct48:43
paiN Gaming 49%Yakult Brothers 51%
The model gave 51% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 58:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorDarkMago
59% · 156 games43% · 207 games
Queen of PainMoon
Queen of Pain
Lifestealer
LifestealerSmiling Knight
52% · 187 games45% · 94 games
Weaverflyfly
Weaver
Tidehunter
TidehunterFrank
53% · 313 games52% · 144 games
UnderlordYang
Underlord
Ringmaster
RingmasterElmisho
52% · 448 games47% · 596 games
Jakiro天命
Jakiro
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanScofield
54% · 392 games43% · 455 games
TinyBoBoKa
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 55%
Series resultYakult Brothers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2