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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Uploss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Asterwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Royal Never Give Up

No games played over 6 months.

Team Aster

Snapfire
Snapfire
Fantasy · 18 games
56%
Lion
Lionsignature
BoBoKa · 17 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 17 games
59%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ori · 17 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 16 games
56%
Lina
Linasignature
White丶Album · 15 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 15 games
80%
Bane
Banesignature
Fantasy · 14 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
499 picks · 354 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
447 picks · 652 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
384 picks · 482 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
384 picks · 837 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
373 picks · 193 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
299 picks · 506 bans
54%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
288 picks · 453 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
263 picks · 353 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 58%
Hero pool strength58% Team Aster
Head-to-head2 – 5
Model total57% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:17
Royal Never Give Up 43%Team Aster 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 29:45.
Game 2prediction correct32:8
Royal Never Give Up 43%Team Aster 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 28:50.
Game 3prediction correct43:35
Royal Never Give Up 43%Team Aster 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 1:01:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 57%
Series resultTeam Aster 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3