Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
KBU.USloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team DogChampwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Team DogChamp
Hoodwinksignature
yarintheslayer · 6 games
Marssignature
lukiluki · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
lukiluki · 5 games
Bane
Bloody Nine · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 4 games
Abaddon
Bloody Nine · 3 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
lukiluki · 3 games
Lion
yarintheslayer · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
495 picks · 354 bans
Mars
445 picks · 649 bans
Queen of Pain
383 picks · 478 bans
Weaver
383 picks · 831 bans
Snapfire
370 picks · 193 bans
Kunkka
299 picks · 503 bans
Spirit Breaker
287 picks · 453 bans
Ember Spirit
263 picks · 353 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 64%
Hero pool strength57% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total50% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:22
KBU.US 50%Team DogChamp 50%
The model gave 50% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 34:46.
Game 2prediction correct12:23
KBU.US 50%Team DogChamp 50%
The model gave 50% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 25:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 50%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2