Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamwin 1:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Hydraloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winstrike Team
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 18 games
Weaversignature
yamich · 17 games
Marssignature
chshrct · 16 games
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 14 games
Ogre Magi
Panto · 12 games
Abaddon
Panto · 11 games
Miranasignature
yamich · 11 games
Monkey Kingsignature
yamich · 11 games
Hydra
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 22 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 20 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 19 games
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 18 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 17 games
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 15 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Muka · 15 games
Chensignature
Zayac · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
493 picks · 353 bans
Mars
445 picks · 647 bans
Queen of Pain
382 picks · 477 bans
Weaver
381 picks · 830 bans
Snapfire
369 picks · 193 bans
Kunkka
298 picks · 502 bans
Spirit Breaker
287 picks · 451 bans
Ember Spirit
262 picks · 352 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:17
Winstrike Team 46%Hydra 54%
The model gave 54% on Hydra — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 50:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracLarl
PuckAskold
ViperNoticed
Monkey KingKami
Night StalkerDaxak
UnderlordBlizzy
Ioforcemajor
ChenZayac
WeaverSoNNeikO
BaneMuka
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 59%
Series resultWinstrike Team 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1