?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Phoenix Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ELeVeN · 22 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Victoria · 20 games
55%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Pyw · 19 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Dy · 18 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
ELeVeN · 17 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yds · 16 games
38%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Xm · 14 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
poyoyo · 13 games
46%

Phoenix Gaming

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Shining · 7 games
14%
Bane
Bane
Lwwnb · 5 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Shining · 5 games
20%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Helios · 4 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
zone- · 3 games
0%
Tusk
Tusk
Helios · 3 games
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Lwwnb · 2 games
0%
Mirana
Mirana
Helios · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
486 picks · 349 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
441 picks · 643 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
379 picks · 469 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
376 picks · 822 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
363 picks · 191 bans
46%
Kunkka
Kunkka
296 picks · 496 bans
54%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
286 picks · 439 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
259 picks · 349 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 20%
Hero pool strength65% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:18
Vici Gaming 63%Phoenix Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 45:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kingpoyoyo
51% · 159 games50% · 235 games
Queen of Painzone-
Queen of Pain
Tidehunter
TidehunterIrving
47% · 161 game49% · 108 games
ViperShining
Viper
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXm
50% · 131 game56% · 249 games
Nyx AssassinHelios
Nyx Assassin
Rubick
RubickYds
46% · 168 games48% · 206 games
AbaddonLwwnb
Abaddon
Bane
BaneVictoria
52% · 179 games
Game 2prediction correct30:12
Vici Gaming 63%Phoenix Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 27:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinXm
53% · 140 games57% · 214 games
Ember Spiritzone-
Ember Spirit
Morphling
Morphlingpoyoyo
42% · 133 games51% · 266 games
TidehunterShining
Tidehunter
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderIrving
48% · 83 games56% · 66 games
UndyingLwwnb
Undying
Snapfire
SnapfireYds
36% · 221 game61% · 219 games
BaneHelios
Bane
Disruptor
DisruptorVictoria
41% · 188 games
Game 3prediction correct34:27
Vici Gaming 63%Phoenix Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 44:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinXm
53% · 125 games60% · 211 games
Ember Spiritzone-
Ember Spirit
Morphling
Morphlingpoyoyo
45% · 158 games45% · 43 games
JakiroShining
Jakiro
Brewmaster
BrewmasterIrving
41% · 63 games58% · 210 games
Nyx AssassinHelios
Nyx Assassin
Snapfire
SnapfireYds
42% · 200 games53% · 192 games
Death ProphetLwwnb
Death Prophet
Disruptor
DisruptorVictoria
44% · 110 games
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 72%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3