BLAST Slam VIII · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 2:1series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LGD Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Yandex
Winter Wyvernsignature
Malady · 22 games
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 19 games
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
Kezsignature
Watson · 17 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 17 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 16 games
Snapfiresignature
Chira JUNIOR · 13 games
Undyingsignature
Malady · 13 games
LGD Gaming
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 34 games
Baneoften banned
KJ · 22 games
Clockwerk
KJ · 22 games
Necrophosoften banned
Yuma · 22 games
Windranger
Thiolicor · 19 games
Dark Willow
Thiolicor · 17 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Wisper · 16 games
Winter Wyvern
KJ · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
529 picks · 320 bans
Dark Willow
438 picks · 205 bans
Mirana
392 picks · 175 bans
Ember Spirit
339 picks · 509 bans
Winter Wyvern
337 picks · 311 bans
Centaur Warrunner
313 picks · 303 bans
Earth Spirit
300 picks · 510 bans
Windranger
280 picks · 142 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 51%
Hero pool strength61% Team Yandex
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total78% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:41
Team Yandex 66%LGD Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 52:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyWatson
SlarkSumaiL
HuskarATF
WindrangerWits
Earth SpiritChira JUNIOR
BrewmasterDavai
HoodwinkMalady
RubickThiolicor
Dark WillowSaksa
Winter WyvernSneyking
Game 2prediction missed23:41
Team Yandex 66%LGD Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 52:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyWatson
SlarkSumaiL
HuskarATF
WindrangerWits
Earth SpiritChira JUNIOR
BrewmasterDavai
HoodwinkMalady
RubickThiolicor
Dark WillowSaksa
Winter WyvernSneyking
Game 3prediction correct28:15
Team Yandex 66%LGD Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 31:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinWatson
Nature's ProphetWits
DawnbreakerATF
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
Earth SpiritChira JUNIOR
EarthshakerSumaiL
TechiesMalady
Dark WillowThiolicor
WindrangerSaksa
DazzleSneyking
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 78%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3