Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
Entitywin 1:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Brameloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Brame
Nature's Prophetsignature
SkyLark · 20 games
Weaveroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 18 games
Lunasignature
Nefrit · 15 games
Marssignature
SkyLark · 15 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Nefrit · 13 games
Kunkkasignature
W1sh- · 13 games
Spirit Breakersignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 13 games
Earth Spiritsignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
486 picks · 349 bans
Mars
441 picks · 642 bans
Queen of Pain
378 picks · 469 bans
Weaver
376 picks · 821 bans
Snapfire
363 picks · 191 bans
Kunkka
296 picks · 495 bans
Spirit Breaker
286 picks · 438 bans
Ember Spirit
259 picks · 349 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 58%
Hero pool strength56% Brame
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total68% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:22
Entity 68%Brame 32%
The model gave 68% on Entity — the game was taken by Brame in 26:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 68%
Series resultEntity 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1