Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO1
result vs prediction
T1win 1:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team SMGloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Team SMG
Earthshakersignature
AhFu · 28 games
Bloodseekersignature
Roddgeee · 19 games
Abaddon
Roddgeee · 16 games
Grimstroke
AhFu · 14 games
Linasignature
Moon · 14 games
Lunaoften banned
MidOne · 14 games
Monkey Kingsignature
MidOne · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
Roddgeee · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
484 picks · 349 bans
Mars
440 picks · 640 bans
Queen of Pain
375 picks · 469 bans
Weaver
375 picks · 819 bans
Snapfire
362 picks · 190 bans
Kunkka
296 picks · 494 bans
Spirit Breaker
286 picks · 436 bans
Ember Spirit
259 picks · 348 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Team SMG
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total59% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:18
T1 59%Team SMG 41%
The model gave 59% on T1 — the game was taken by Team SMG in 34:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 59%
Series resultT1 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1