Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO1
result vs prediction
T1loss 0:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Fnaticwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
484 picks · 348 bans
Mars
440 picks · 637 bans
Queen of Pain
374 picks · 467 bans
Weaver
372 picks · 819 bans
Snapfire
362 picks · 190 bans
Kunkka
296 picks · 491 bans
Spirit Breaker
284 picks · 436 bans
Ember Spirit
258 picks · 348 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% T1
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total54% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:19
T1 54%Fnatic 46%
The model gave 54% on T1 — the game was taken by Fnatic in 33:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 54%
Series resultFnatic 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1