Intel World Open Beijing · BO5
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:3series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Team Asterwin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Queen of Painsignature
Paparazi · 10 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Pyw · 9 games
Marssignature
Srf · 8 games
Ursasignature
Another · 8 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Paparazi · 7 games
Banesignature
Dy · 6 games
Earthshakersignature
Pyw · 6 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Another · 6 games
Team Aster
Lionsignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 16 games
Marssignature
Xxs · 15 games
Queen of Painsignature
Ori · 15 games
Linasignature
White丶Album · 14 games
Snapfire
Fantasy · 14 games
Banesignature
Fantasy · 13 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
483 picks · 345 bans
Mars
440 picks · 633 bans
Queen of Pain
371 picks · 466 bans
Weaver
370 picks · 817 bans
Snapfire
360 picks · 190 bans
Kunkka
295 picks · 490 bans
Spirit Breaker
283 picks · 432 bans
Ember Spirit
258 picks · 348 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:28
Xtreme Gaming 44%Team Aster 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 25:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith Kinglou
RazorMonet
Queen of PainELeVeN
LinaOri
Storm SpiritPaparazi
Legion CommanderXxs
Earth SpiritPyw
IoBoBoKa
TidehunterDy
WeaverFantasy
Game 2prediction missed36:24
Xtreme Gaming 44%Team Aster 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 44:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassinlou
Queen of PainOri
BroodmotherELeVeN
TinyMonet
Storm SpiritPaparazi
PangolierXxs
WeaverPyw
LionBoBoKa
IoDy
SnapfireFantasy
Game 3prediction correct23:40
Xtreme Gaming 41%Team Aster 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 43:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursalou
LeshracOri
Storm SpiritPaparazi
Spirit BreakerXxs
LycanELeVeN
RikiMonet
TuskPyw
GrimstrokeBoBoKa
IoDy
BaneFantasy
Game 4prediction correct42:33
Xtreme Gaming 36%Team Aster 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 55:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 64%
Series resultTeam Aster 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4