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Intel World Open Beijing · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Asterwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xiao8 · 21 game
67%
Bane
Banesignature
y` · 20 games
95%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 15 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
87%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 14 games
86%
Luna
Lunasignature
Ame · 13 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Xiao8 · 12 games
83%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Faith_bian · 12 games
67%

Team Aster

Lion
Lionsignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 16 games
63%
Lina
Linasignature
White丶Album · 14 games
64%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 14 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fantasy · 14 games
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ori · 13 games
62%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
BoBoKa · 12 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 12 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
479 picks · 345 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
439 picks · 628 bans
51%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
368 picks · 464 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
368 picks · 815 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
359 picks · 188 bans
46%
Kunkka
Kunkka
292 picks · 488 bans
55%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
282 picks · 427 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
257 picks · 347 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 57%
Hero pool strength58% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head6 – 3
Model total81% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:12
LGD Gaming 68%Team Aster 32%
The model gave 68% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 33:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinAme
55% · 215 games50% · 218 games
Wraith KingMonet
Wraith King
Lina
LinaNothingToSay
44% · 273 games45% · 164 games
Queen of PainOri
Queen of Pain
Tidehunter
TidehunterFaith_bian
52% · 325 games44% · 415 games
MarsXxs
Mars
Tusk
TuskXinQ
50% · 198 games49% · 136 games
Winter WyvernBoBoKa
Winter Wyvern
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demony`
50% · 156 games60% · 234 games
BaneFantasy
Bane
Game 2prediction missed36:39
LGD Gaming 66%Team Aster 34%
The model gave 66% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 56:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanFaith_bian
52% · 106 games41% · 156 games
LeshracOri
Leshrac
Ursa
UrsaAme
46% · 120 games56% · 236 games
Monkey KingMonet
Monkey King
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
46% · 204 games43% · 91 game
Night StalkerXxs
Night Stalker
Snapfire
SnapfireXinQ
49% · 246 games58% · 220 games
Nyx AssassinBoBoKa
Nyx Assassin
Tidehunter
Tidehuntery`
47% · 245 games58% · 218 games
BaneFantasy
Bane
Game 3prediction missed19:28
LGD Gaming 70%Team Aster 30%
The model gave 70% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 42:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaNothingToSay
54% · 189 games47% · 139 games
MorphlingMonet
Morphling
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerAme
47% · 66 games52% · 203 games
Queen of PainOri
Queen of Pain
Pangolier
PangolierFaith_bian
50% · 203 games46% · 46 games
BroodmotherXxs
Broodmother
Rubick
RubickXinQ
42% · 194 games52% · 302 games
WeaverBoBoKa
Weaver
Bane
Baney`
59% · 304 games49% · 266 games
TidehunterFantasy
Tidehunter
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 81%
Series resultTeam Aster 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3