Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavawin 2:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hokoriloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lava
No games played over 6 months.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
478 picks · 344 bans
Mars
439 picks · 626 bans
Weaver
368 picks · 813 bans
Queen of Pain
367 picks · 463 bans
Snapfire
359 picks · 188 bans
Kunkka
292 picks · 486 bans
Spirit Breaker
282 picks · 426 bans
Ember Spirit
256 picks · 347 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Lava
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:34
Lava 41%Hokori 59%
The model gave 59% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 26:07.
Game 2prediction correct8:30
Lava 41%Hokori 59%
The model gave 59% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 23:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 59%
Series resultLava 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2