Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChampwin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
5RATFORCESTAFFloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team DogChamp
Hoodwink
yarintheslayer · 5 games
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
lukiluki · 5 games
Bane
Bloody Nine · 4 games
Abaddon
Bloody Nine · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 3 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
lukiluki · 3 games
Lion
yarintheslayer · 3 games
5RATFORCESTAFF
Banesignature
Overlom · 9 games
Medusasignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 6 games
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
red2 · 4 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
TingleK1ng · 4 games
Queen of Painoften banned
red2 · 4 games
Snapfire
bgod · 4 games
Dark Willow
bgod · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
478 picks · 342 bans
Mars
438 picks · 625 bans
Queen of Pain
367 picks · 462 bans
Weaver
367 picks · 813 bans
Snapfire
358 picks · 188 bans
Kunkka
292 picks · 486 bans
Spirit Breaker
282 picks · 426 bans
Ember Spirit
256 picks · 347 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 69%
Hero pool strength53% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:44
Team DogChamp 49%5RATFORCESTAFF 51%
The model gave 51% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 46:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingStoneBank
Faceless VoidITALIANO GANGSTA
Marslukiluki
Invokerred2
Hoodwinkyarintheslayer
Weaverbgod
LichBloody Nine
Ogre MagiOverlom
Game 2prediction missed43:16
Team DogChamp 48%5RATFORCESTAFF 52%
The model gave 52% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 35:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaStoneBank
Templar AssassinITALIANO GANGSTA
Keeper of the Lightyarintheslayer
Outworld Destroyerred2
Magnuslukiluki
Snapfirebgod
LichBloody Nine
AbaddonOverlom
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 51%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2