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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Fata · 15 games
60%
Bane
Banesignature
Fata · 13 games
85%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 12 games
83%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 12 games
83%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Nine · 11 games
82%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 11 games
82%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Skiter · 11 games
64%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Sneyking · 11 games
82%

Nigma Galaxy

Bane
Banesignature
KuroKy · 7 games
71%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
iLTW · 5 games
60%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
iLTW · 5 games
80%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 5 games
20%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Miracle- · 4 games
50%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
iLTW · 4 games
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
KuroKy · 4 games
25%
Rubick
Rubick
GH · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
476 picks · 342 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
438 picks · 625 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
366 picks · 462 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
366 picks · 812 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
357 picks · 188 bans
46%
Kunkka
Kunkka
291 picks · 485 bans
55%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
281 picks · 425 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
256 picks · 347 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 44%
Hero pool strength64% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total78% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct51:6
Tundra Esports 69%Nigma Galaxy 31%
The model gave 69% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 26:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingSkiter
52% · 192 games45% · 99 games
TimbersawMinD_ContRoL
Timbersaw
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNine
50% · 159 games42% · 114 games
RubickMiracle-
Rubick
Visage
Visage33
45% · 12 games51% · 138 games
MedusaiLTW
Medusa
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSneyking
46% · 163 games52% · 157 games
Spirit BreakerKuroKy
Spirit Breaker
Bane
BaneFata
57% · 175 games54% · 193 games
Nyx AssassinGH
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 78%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1